My Froch-Kessler II Thoughts

This coming Saturday the long awaited rematch between England's Carl "The Cobra" Froch and Denmark's Mikkel "Viking Warrior" Kessler takes place in London live on Sky Sports Box Office. The event, co-promoted by Eddie Hearn and the Sauerland Brothers has predictably been referred to as the biggest show of the year by all of the promoters, but does it justify the hype?

The first fight saw Kessler win via unanimous decision with the judges scoring the fight 115-113, 116-112 and 117-111, while the build-up to the rematch has declared that this will be another "war" the clear margin of victory and footage from the fight suggests it wasn't quite the fight some would have you believe. True, it was a very interesting fight but one which took place in-between Kessler's defeat to undoubted Super Middleweight king Andre Ward and Froch's defeat to the same opponent. Froch would have you believe his clash with Ward was a very close fight but after watching it in its entirety for me the only judge who got it right that night was John Keane giving it 118-110 to Ward, the scores from judges Metcalfe and Stewart (both 115-113 for Ward) were generous to Froch who struggled to land cleanly against the slicker, faster American. This fight is to determine the number two Super Middleweight in the world and potentially give one of the competitors a rematch with Ward (who is struggling to find worthy opponents as his decision to fight a deflated at the weight Chad Dawson emphasised).

Don't get me wrong, I believe this will be a good fight, a good event and a good battle but is it really worth the Pay-Per-View treatment and additional cost for the fans? The last time these two collided Sky Sports were not interested, this time they are proclaiming it as fight-of-the-year potential. I believe the bookmakers offering 1/2 Froch and 2/1 Kessler have got this one a bit wrong. Carl Froch possesses a good record, that can't be questioned but looking at it more closely questions have to be raised about his credentials as a top two Super Middleweight. Arguably his two biggest wins came against Jermain Taylor and Lucian Bute, two fighters who in themselves do not have victories to compare to Kessler. Firstly I will look at the Taylor fight, in this contest Froch famously got the victory by KO'ing the American in the final round when losing on two of the three scorecards, this shows heart, resilience and a great inner strength but Jermain Taylor was a fighter who had twice lost to Kelly Pavlik and drawn with Ronald Wright by the time he got in the ring with The Cobra, he probably accepted he was not one of the top elite boxers at the weight and the fact that he almost won the fight and did indeed win most of the rounds should result in some alarm bells ringing for Froch backers and fans. The Bute fight was one which, like the Kessler fight, received massive media attention and saw the Romanian-Canadian go into it as the favourite to retain his world championship. What happened of course was Carl Froch totally dismantled him and picked up the win via 5th round TKO (cue a certain Mr. Hearn jumping in the ring!) at the time this appeared a massive result but in the aftermath a lot of boxing observers and fans had a closer look at Bute's record, he was scandalously saved early in his career by the referee in a fight against Librado Andrade (who?) when he should have been counted out when down but was instead given far too much time to recover by the referee in his adopted country of Canada. Aside from that the biggest name on his record is Glen Johnson, the same Glen Johnson who had already lost fifteen times by the time he got in the ring with Bute, Froch put on a great show that night but for me simply exposed Bute as an over-hyped cash cow.

Now for Mikkel Kessler's record. Kessler has lost twice to Joe Calzaghe and Andre Ward. Calzaghe finished his career undefeated whilst Ward looks to be going the same way, the fact that a man like Kessler has been active in the same era as these two amazing fighters is somewhat unlucky but with the way boxing is nowadays he is still considered a world champion by the WBA. Interestingly Kessler's victory over Froch the first time around came after his defeat to Ward, Kessler is clearly a man who can bounce back from defeat. Since the Froch fight he has stopped Mehdi Bouadla, Allan Green and Brian Magee, none of these are elite fighters (they have ten accumulated losses between them) but in the Green fight he showed something that Froch could worry about. Kessler was stunningly knocked down in round one by the veteran Green but his ability to get up almost straight away and look like he was back to full health (and indeed this turned out to be the truth) showed the chin and calm nature that the man can call on. You may question why after being knocked down I am saying he has a great chin, well if you look at the fight on Youtube you will see that it was a massive shot and his ability to take it, get up and fight on (and indeed knock out Green in round 4) was very impressive. Should Froch get to Kessler in the rematch and put him on the canvas that will be far from the end - Kessler is a fighter in every meaning of the world and will not sit down for anybody.

Now for my prediction. On fight night a lot of people will decide that they are experts on boxing and whilst I certainly do not consider myself one I feel I know more and will have seen more of both fighters than the average watcher on Saturday night will. A quick look at the method of victory odds shows Froch 6/4 to win by Decision, Froch 5/2 to win by KO/TKO, Kessler 9/2 to win by Decision, Kessler 11/2 to win by KO/TKO and 22/1 for the draw. This shows it is pretty much wide open - you can more than double your money regardless of which outcome you back. I plan on doing two bets for this one, Kessler to win by decision at 9/2 and the draw at 22/1. If this fight ends early I will be very surprised and for me in the build-up Kessler's actual boxing skills have been underrated. Froch, in the eyes of some, is a devastating puncher but for me KO wins against over-hyped Lucian Bute, relative journeyman Yusaf Mack and a exhausted Jermain Taylor doesn't portray that. Kessler has 35 of his 46 wins by knockout but when you consider the calibre of opponents he will have fought early in his career this is nothing special. I can see this one going the distance, I can see it being a more calculated affair than the promoters and mainstream media are making out and, ultimately I can see Mikkel Kessler outclassing Carl Froch for a second time, but the draw and a lucrative third fight is far from impossible, a little stake on that could see large rewards.

The fact that this fight is on a Pay-Per-View card has left a lot of boxing fans unhappy, one way that Eddie Hearn could have softened the blow would have been to offer a stacked undercard. For a promoter with the likes of Tony Bellew, George Groves, Carl Frampton, Darren Barker, Ricky Burns, Kell Brook and Gavin Rees on his books the decision to only have one respectable undercard fight is very disappointing. In Bellew-Chilemba II we have an interesting fight - the first one was recorded as a draw despite both fighters feeling they had won it, a lot of questions will face Tony Bellew going into the rematch. Alongside that we have George Groves fighting 34 year-old Noe Gonzalez Alcoba who has lost in both of his fights against high-level opposition (Adonis Stevenson and Felix Sturm) and has almost exclusively fought unknown fighters with bad records in South America, certainly not a fight to interest the majority of fans, the odds of 1/33 on a Groves win surely shows the level of competitiveness that is expected in this fight. Aside from those three fights only prospects are on the bill, this fight is the same night as the Champions League final which gives Matchroom a good excuse as to why they don't think the bill needs to be stacked but having one competitive bout makes it pretty dismal as Pay-Per-View undercards go.

I fancy a double of Kessler by decision and Chilemba by decision, that comes to around 16/1. Add Bayern Munich to beat Dortmund in the Champions League final and you get better than 30/1 with some bookmakers.